How to tell whether your startup idea is too competitive

What we analysed

This guide draws on ViableBrand's Blue Ocean reports. Each one takes a founder's description of a product and its problem, estimates from that description alone how contested the market is, from 0 (crowded, competing on the same factors as everyone) to 100 (uncontested), and works out which factors to eliminate, reduce, raise and create to move toward the open end.

Limits worth knowing: the score is a model's reading of the founder's own description, so it only knows what it is told. Describe a category ("a CRM for dentists") and the report fills the gap with a differentiation of its own invention; describe the pain ("dentists lose recall patients because reminders go to dead numbers") and the score is about your idea. Industry is what the founder selected, and the early sample skews toward software.

What the scores look like

We've temporarily taken down the score statistics on this page while we recalculate them using a new, evidence-backed methodology. Until now each Blue Ocean score was estimated from a founder's description of their product, without researching the market, so the numbers described those estimates rather than real markets. The new method checks each idea against the competitors and alternatives that research actually finds. The statistics will return once that method has been validated and there are enough assessments to support them.

How to answer it for your idea

Three questions decide it. The score is a first guess at them, read from your description; answering them by hand, in about an hour, is what actually settles it.

1. 1

   Who do they pay today?

   Not who you would list on a competitor slide. Ask the people with the problem what they use right now. If the honest answer is a named product they pay for and mostly like, you are entering a served market. If it is Excel, a notebook, an assistant, a workaround or nothing, the market is open no matter how many logos exist.

2. 2

   How many ways can they solve it?

   Write down every alternative, including the free and the manual ones. A problem with one dominant paid solution and a dozen workarounds is a different market from one with twenty near-identical paid tools. The first has an opening under the incumbent; the second only has an opening if you change what people compete on.

3. 3

   Is the pain still unsolved?

   Read the one- and two-star reviews of the alternatives and look for the same complaint repeated. Repeated, specific pain in a market full of products is the strongest signal there is: demand is proven and the incumbents are leaving it on the table. No complaints at all usually means the problem is solved or nobody cares, and both are bad news.

4. 4

   Decide what you will stop competing on

   This is the Blue Ocean move. List the factors the market competes on (features, price, integrations, support) and pick what to eliminate or reduce, so you can raise or create something the incumbents cannot follow without breaking their own model. If you cannot name one factor to drop, you are building a slightly better version of the leader, and slightly better rarely wins.

A worked example

A run from this week, for an idea we used to test the tool: appointment reminders and deposit collection for independent physiotherapy clinics that lose revenue to no-show patients. On paper, a crowded market: scheduling software is everywhere. The report's preliminary estimate, read from that description alone, put it at 74 out of 100: likely a blue ocean.

Why did the estimate come out so high, in a market with hundreds of scheduling tools? Because the description named a specific pain (revenue lost to no-shows) for a specific buyer (independent clinics, not hospital groups), and the model read the alternatives they use today, generic scheduling tools, as treating deposits and no-show policy as an afterthought. On that reading the competition is real but competes on calendar features, and this idea would compete on revenue certainty instead. That is the model's reading of one description, not a check of the market: whether the incumbents really leave deposits on the table is exactly what the three questions above are for.

Two things to take from it. A crowded category can still hold an opening if the incumbents compete on something other than the buyer's actual pain. And the report is only as specific as the description: "scheduling software for clinics" would have produced a generic grid about scheduling, not this one about no-show revenue.

Questions founders ask

How much competition does my app idea have?

Count the alternatives your buyers use today, including free and manual ones, and read their low-star reviews. Many alternatives with repeated, specific complaints means proven demand with an opening. Many alternatives with happy users means a served market. Few alternatives and no complaints usually means no market.

Is my startup idea already taken?

Almost every good idea is being attempted by someone. The question is not whether a product exists but whether it solves your buyers' specific pain well. An idea is only "taken" when a buyer with your problem pays for an existing product and would not switch.

How do I know if a market is too crowded?

A market is too crowded when new entrants compete on the same factors as the leaders: more features, lower price, more integrations. It is not too crowded when you can name a factor the leaders compete on that your buyers do not value, and one they value that nobody offers.

Can I enter a crowded market?

Yes, if you change what the market competes on. Every crowded market has a segment the leaders serve badly because serving it well would break their model. Find that segment by reading what its members complain about, and build for the complaint.

How do I find competitors I don't know about?

Ask buyers what they use instead of a product like yours. Search review sites for the pain in the buyers' words rather than the category name. Search "[category] alternatives" and read the comments, not the listicle. The competitors you find this way are the ones your buyers actually consider.

What is a Blue Ocean score?

ViableBrand's 0 to 100 estimate of how contested a product's market is, read from the founder's description of the product and problem, without researching the market. Under 40 is a red ocean (competing on the same factors as everyone), 40 to 65 is purple (partly differentiated), over 65 is blue (a value curve the incumbents do not offer). It is a starting point for the three questions above, not a verdict.

Is there a tool that tells me how competitive my market is?

ViableBrand's Blue Ocean report gives you a preliminary estimate from your description, names what to eliminate, reduce, raise and create, and lists the paths to an uncontested position. It doesn't yet check the market or name competitors, so treat the score as a hypothesis to test with the three questions above. The first run is free and does not need an account.